National grid newspaper 2015/12/23 9:09:10
Since the reform and opening up, China's energy and electricity has made great achievements in the world. The power generation installation, electricity consumption and the scale of the power grid are ranked first in the world. But the problem of China's energy security, power supply, environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions is very prominent, long term development difficult to continue the traditional energy dominated by fossil energy, must take the clean low-carbon development path, the implementation of the "two alternative", substitute the real Shi Qingjie on energy development, clean energy, hydropower, solar energy wind energy to replace fossil energy; the implementation of alternative energy in the energy consumption, improve the electric energy in terminal energy consumption proportion. The two substitution is a radical solution to solve the problems of energy security, environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. It is a key measure to carry out the strategic deployment of "four revolutions and one cooperation" of the national energy, and has reached broad consensus in the world.
Building global energy Internet, implementation of the "two alternative" requires us to consider the problem of energy power development from a long-term, in-depth study of relevant problems affecting the power grid planning, indicate the direction for the development of "13th Five-Year" and the next step of power grid.
1. to build a well-off society in an all-round way, the demand for electricity will increase rapidly
To build a well-off society in an all-round way by 2020 is the first Centennial goal that our party has set for the goal of "two one hundred years". In order to ensure the demand for national economic development, energy and electricity demand will continue to grow. Considering the industrial transfer, structural adjustment and green low carbon development, it is estimated that by 2020, the total electricity consumption of the whole society will reach 8 trillion kwh.
(1) the synchronous growth of electricity demand and economy
"13th Five-Year" is a period of building a well-off society in the decisive stage, China's economy will maintain a growth rate of around 7% is possible. From the stage of development, China is still in the period of rapid industrialization and urbanization, and the coefficient of power elasticity is about 1. In the development stage of industrialization, the developed countries generally exceed 1 or even more than 2. The United States, Japan, South Korea and other countries the typical economic growth phase shift, respectively in 1951 and 1972 1996, before and after the shift; 10 years ago, electricity elasticity coefficient was more than 1.3; after transformation, the elastic coefficient of electricity decreased, but still in a long time to maintain a high level of. In the 50s of the last century, in Japan in the 70~80 years of the last century and in South Korea in 2000, the coefficient of power elasticity was 2.7, 0.9, and 1.7 respectively. From 2000 to 2014, the elasticity coefficient of electric power in China is 1.1. In the first three years of 12th Five-Year, the power elasticity coefficient is 1.022014 years, and the power consumption growth in 2015 has a sudden drop. The "12th Five-Year" power elasticity coefficient has dropped to 0.78. "13th Five-Year" period, along with the economic growth bottoming out, and the elastic coefficient of electricity consumption growth will rebound.
(2) the per capita electricity consumption in China has a larger growth space in the future
Increasing the proportion of electricity in the end energy consumption is the key measure to improve the efficiency of energy utilization. The efficiency of electricity creation in the terminal field is 3 times as much as oil and 17 times as much as coal. At present, there are still about 450 thousand coal-fired boilers and kiln furnaces in China, and most of them can be replaced by electric energy. More than 150 million cars are insured, and the development of electric vehicles is accelerated. The potential of electricity generation in the field of transportation is great. It is estimated that the potential of electric energy replacement in various fields of our country is up to 2 trillion and 400 billion kwh at present.
In the United States and other countries in the economic growth shift, the per capita electricity consumption has maintained a rapid growth. The per capita consumption of electricity in the United States in 1960, 1965, 1970 and 1980 was 3808, 5235, 6788, 9243 kwh / man, and 14203 kwh / man in 2014. Similarly, the per capita consumption of electricity in South Korea in 1990 and 2000 was 2369, 5907 kwh / man, and 10219 kwh / man in 2014.
In 2010, the per capita consumption of electricity in China was 3140 kwh per person and 4078 kwh per person in 2014, equivalent to the 1960s and 90s levels in the United States. The level of per capita electricity consumption in China is still in low position, and there is a big gap with the developed countries. It can be predicted that with the continuous development of China's economy, the proportion of terminal consumer electricity will rise. In the long term, China's per capita electricity consumption will maintain a relatively fast growth. Per capita electricity consumption is expected to be 5691 kwh per person in 2020, equivalent to 64% of the OECD national average in 2010.
(3) the position of the East and central region as the power load center will remain unchanged for a long time
The East and central region is the leading part of China's economic growth, with a high proportion of population and a large economic base. During the period from 85 to 11th Five-Year, the total social electricity consumption of the 12 provinces and cities in Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Henan, Hunan, Jiangxi and other Eastern and central provinces increased from 58% to 66% in the national Power Grid Corp. At present, the electricity consumption in the East and the middle is about 63%. Considering the transfer of industries, energy-saving emission reduction, structural adjustment, population aggregation, alternative energy and other factors, East Central 12 provinces (city) electricity consumption accounted for the national Power Grid Corp operating area proportion of electricity consumption will decline; industrial transfer has progressive features in time and space, the transfer speed is relatively slow, is expected to "13th Five-Year" during the period of East Central 12 provinces (city) electricity consumption accounted for the national Power Grid Corp operating area proportion will decline by 1 to 2 percentage points, the main load center in China is still.
(4) electric power forecast should be ahead of time
The development of electricity is related to the national economy and the people's livelihood. Once the supply is insufficient, it will seriously affect the economic development and the people's life. In order to ensure the healthy development of the national economy, the development of electric power should be advanced in advance. The forecast of the power demand often tend to be conservative, the fact that the actual economic growth is far greater than expected, for example, in 2004 2010, and 2015 national planning forecast 2020 total electricity consumption will reach 2.75, 3.43 and 4 trillion and 300 billion kwh, while the actual 2010 national total electricity consumption reached 4 trillion and 200 billion kwh, equivalent to the demand for ten years ahead of schedule. At present, our country's whole society electricity consumption growth rate is low, to avoid the forecast of electricity demand is too pessimistic.
2. The development of clean energy is further intensified and the focus of energy development moves further westward
Implement the "energy development strategy action plan (2014-2020)", accelerate the construction of low-carbon, safe and efficient modern clean energy system, "13th Five-Year" must with greater determination and efforts to control the total amount, structure, efficiency, speed up the development of clean energy, promote energy production and consumption revolution.
(1) it is an inevitable trend to implement clean substitution in energy development
Since 11th Five-Year, China's installed capacity has been growing rapidly, with an annual increase of 11.9%. Among them, the growth rate of installed energy of clean energy is 15.1%, and the growth rate of wind power and solar power installed is 65.2% and 53.7%, respectively, which is significantly higher than that of other power installed units. At the end of November 2015, China's total installed generating capacity of 1 billion 410 million kilowatts, of which wind power installed capacity of 113 million kilowatts of photovoltaic installed capacity of 33 million 270 thousand kilowatts.
In the joint statement on climate change between China and the United States, the proportion of non fossil energy consumed in 2030 was increased to 20% in the proportion of primary energy consumption. To achieve this goal, the development of clean energy is unstoppable. We must adjust and optimize the energy structure to replace fossil energy, such as solar energy and wind energy, to promote the construction of ecological civilization and meet the needs of economic and social development.
In recent years, the trend of low carbonization of energy development in the world is obvious, and the proportion of wind energy and solar energy is increasing year by year. At present, the German wind power, solar power installed capacity accounted for 42%, wind power, solar energy installed in China accounted for 10%; the United States and Europe and other developed countries accounted for most of the main coal is less than 30%, but a higher proportion of oil and gas generation, the proportion of China's coal loading machine is still very high, reaching 62.6%.
From the perspective of resource endowment and development trend, wind power and solar power generation will become the main force of clean development. With the gradual decline of technological progress and development costs, we have accelerated development. In 2014, the cost of wind power generation in China has dropped to 0.37 to 0.45 yuan / kWh, and the PV generation cost has dropped to 0.68 to 0.8 yuan / kWh. The competitiveness of 2020 will exceed that of fossil energy.
(2) environmental governance requires strict control of conventional coal and electricity construction in East and central China
In the eastern and central regions, 75% of the country's coal electricity is concentrated. The emission of air pollution is more than 5 times more than the national average, and the 104 heavy acid rain cities in the country are all in the East and the middle. The frequent severe haze, become the people's suffering from heart and lung, the urgent need to strictly control the total coal consumption, reduce coal size.
At present, China's coal development faces out of control of the situation, the country approved under construction 240 million kilowatts coal-fired power projects, and achieved flagging project 180 million kilowatts, if all construction, 2020 will reach 1 billion 300 million kilowatts of installed capacity of coal. Especially in the 12 provinces and municipalities in the East and central China, the approved coal and electricity projects have reached 80 million kilowatts. If all of them are built, the goal of energy structure adjustment and layout optimization will be difficult to achieve, and the environmental problems will be more serious.
The fog haze in the East and the middle of China is mainly caused by the emission, and the fundamental measure to solve the environmental problems is to coalification. In accordance with the "notice" issued by the State Council action plan for air pollution prevention and control and the Ministry of environmental protection, development and Reform Commission and other 6 ministries "on the issuance of the" Beijing Tianjin and surrounding areas to implement the rules "to implement air pollution control action plan notice" requirements, the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region, the Yangtze River Delta and other regions in addition to the CHP, ban approving new coal-fired power generation projects. In the long term, environmental governance requires a large number of coal and electricity to withdraw from the market, leaving some large capacity coal and electricity supply as the peaking FM power supply to support the power grid. Replace it with local gas, nuclear power and foreign power to solve the power demand of the load center.
(3) the focus of energy development further moves northward
To build a clean, low carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, we should focus on building a clean energy based energy base in the western and northern regions.
Southwest China is rich in hydropower resources and low in development and utilization. Speeding up Hydropower Development in Sichuan and Tibet can significantly improve the environmental quality in the eastern and central regions, and will also effectively promote economic development, national unity and social stability in Tibetan areas. The land wind energy resources in China are concentrated in North China, northeast and northwest, and the solar energy resources are concentrated in Tibet, northwest and Inner Mongolia areas. In the future, the focus of China's energy development will move further westward.
On the one hand, to accelerate the development and utilization of clean energy, construction of large-scale photovoltaic, wind power base, to achieve large-scale out of clean energy; on the other hand, relying on coal resources in northern and western areas, the construction of large coal bases of coal in situ conversion, and wind power, solar and other clean energy bale delivery, to meet with the middle east the electricity needs.
According to the development ideas above, the total amount of power supply installed in 2020 is 2 billion 70 million kilowatts, compared with 700 million kW in 2014, and an annual increase of 120 million kilowatts. Among them, 1 billion 120 million kilowatts of coal and electric power, 240 million kilowatts of wind power (180 million kilowatts in three North), 63 million kilowatts in the east central part, 150 million kilowatts of solar energy (80 million kW in the west, 70 million kW in the eastern part, and 347 million KW in hydropower). The proportion of clean energy installed from 31.6% in 2014 to 39.3% in 2020, and the proportion of coal and electricity installed from 62.6% in 2014 to 54.3% in 2020.
3, thinking of the scientific development of power grid pattern
The characteristics of China's energy resources endowment determine that the pattern of the future West power transmission and the north power transmission will not change, and the scale will be further expanded. It is expected that by 2020, the 12 provinces (cities) in the East and central provinces (cities) have reached 310 million kilowatts of power flow, which is 3 times the current 110 million kilowatts. In order to meet the new energy consumptive and large-scale power across the need to optimize the allocation of scientific planning, to strengthen the cross provincial power grid layout, interconnected power grid construction, improve grid resource optimization ability and safe bearing capacity, to ensure safe and reliable supply of energy.
(1) to solve the clean energy development and consumption scale problem, the key is to expand the scale of power grid synchronization
China's wind power and photovoltaic resources are concentrated in the north western area, restricted by the local load level is low, the small size of the system, cross transmission channel factors such as lack of local consumption, it is difficult to achieve the new energy power generation, resulting in a large number of abandoned abandoned water, wind, abandoned light. In 2014, the southwest region abandoned nearly 30 billion kw of water, and the "Three North" areas abandoned the wind 10 billion kwh, and the northwest region abandoned the light of nearly 2 billion 500 million kwh. It has been proved by practice that the 6 AC synchronous power grids in North China, central China, East China, Northeast China, Northwest China, South China and Tibet are no longer suitable for the development of clean energy.
Due to the inherent characteristics of new energy output is random and intermittent, large-scale development of new energy transmission consumption, put forward higher requirements on the grid collection transmission capacity, peak FM and metastasis support ability, power grid development idea and development pattern must be adjusted. Overall, is to focus on clean energy development layout, expand the scale of power grid synchronization, based on the existing synchronous power grid pattern, through the end of power supply and different resource types (such as the Northwest Sichuan, Tibet) interconnected complementary resources delivery, mainly by the end of the region electric network interconnected to form a larger system capacity is strong by the end, the final formation of the sending and receiving ends of clear structure, communication and coordinated development of the pattern of dc. Through the optimization of synchronous power grid pattern, on the one hand to achieve cross regional inter basin clean energy hybrid power, wind power, solar power to improve the random and intermittent, reduce peak demand, improve the utilization rate of delivery channel, on the other hand, it can effectively improve the power grid by the end of the size of the system, strengthen the system peaking capacity and frequency characteristics, so as to enhance the ability to accept large-scale clean energy feed.
According to the planning, through the construction of Western and Eastern two synchronous grid, to 2020, the new energy scale transboundary transport will be able to more than 150 million kilowatts, in order to achieve a greater range of hydropower and thermal power, complementary, and optimize the allocation of mass transport, abandoned abandoned wind, light can be controlled in a reasonable range of 5% in clean energy will solve the West in the large-scale development and consumptive problem fundamentally, guarantee the efficient utilization of clean energy.
(2) the scale of the synchronous grid is gradually expanded and the quantity is gradually reduced, which is the inevitable trend of the development of the main power grid in the world.
From the development process of foreign power grid, the development of power grid in all countries basically follows the law of continuous network integration of synchronous grid. The grid throughout the course of development of North America, Europe, Russia, Brazil, India and other major countries / regions, closely related to grid structure and distribution of energy resources, power balance and political system, but without exception, chose the large power grid development. With the continuous improvement of transmission voltage level and the continuous development and breakthrough of power technology, the scale and coverage of synchronous power grids are expanding.
The more typical examples are the North American power grid and the continental power grid. In the early twentieth Century, many isolated power grids were formed in North America based on load and power supply conditions. By 1960s, 8 regional synchronous interconnected power grids were formed through interstate interconnection. At present, 48 power stations in the US and 6 provinces in the southern part of Canada are all connected with the power grid, forming the 4 largest synchronous grids in eastern North America, West China, Quebec and Dezhou. In the future, the United States will further integrate the Dezhou power grid into the Western synchronous grid, and the number of synchronous power grids will be further reduced. The development of the European continent synchronous grid is more representative. In order to obtain the benefits of network, strengthen the power consumption of clean energy, mutual aid, the European continent in the basis of national power grid, in 1960s, the formation of Western Europe combined with power grid, power grid, combined with Spain and Portugal joint power grid, power grid, Yugoslavia power grid in Eastern Europe a total of 6 synchronous grid, to the end of 90s, synchronous power grid interconnection to further expand the scale, has the formation of a unified European synchronous power grid covering 24 countries.
In general, the main reasons for the development of the interconnected power grid are to improve the power distribution, security, reliability and economies of scale of the power grid. Communication network is a common trend of development of world power grid, the construction of a large-scale power grid synchronization is effective approach to satisfy the long-distance transmission of large capacity, in the face of failure impact, more power and load will also respond to reduce the fluctuation of the whole power grid safety and reliability of the increase, in line with the objective law of power grid development.
(3) to ensure the safe and reliable supply of electric power, it is necessary to build a strong synchronous grid structure
With the rapid construction of UHV DC, the AC construction of UHV is relatively slow, which causes the problem of "strong and weak intersection" in the power grid, which seriously threatens the safety of operation. At present, Sichuan Hydropower to the East power supply three special high-voltage DC power supply full power up to 21 million 600 thousand kilowatts, 500 thousand volt power existing in sending and receiving Western Eastern serious adaptation, has repeatedly appeared at the same time, DC commutation failure, resulting in a large number of active power and reactive power shortage, extremely easy to cause the frequency and voltage stability. In September of this year, the bipolar blocking of JinSu DC occurred, resulting in the frequency drop of East China power grid to 49.563 Hz and over limit operation for 207 seconds, which seriously affected the safety and stability of power grid. The East China area through multi HVDC receiving area of external power, large capacity DC with the sending end, with the same channel, by the end of parallel operation, the highest risk for HVDC and fault, if not as soon as possible to strengthen communication network, expand the scale of Internet, will lead to serious security risks. The scale of HVDC transmission to the east central load center will continue to expand in the future. The hidden danger brought by "tweak and weak intersection" will be more prominent, and the transmission capacity of UHVDC will also be severely restricted. In recent years, with the electricity load, the installed capacity is greatly improved, the existing 500 thousand volt power grid becomes more and more intensive, the short circuit current exceed the standard problem, the grid was forced to take pull line, line on control measures, power grid operation mode is too complicated and difficult to arrange, and the grid structure integrity is destroyed, security risks are difficult to overcome.
According to the principle of "strong intersection and rigidity", we will build UHV power grid with coordinated development, reasonable structure and advanced technology, so as to realize the upgrading of the power grid and solve the problem of "tweak and weak intersection" fundamentally. Synchronous power grid has strong power flow transfer capability and good voltage stability, and it can effectively resist serious faults, natural disasters, external damage and network attacks. It can ensure the safe operation of power grid.
4,speed up the construction of modern distribution network and serve the people's livelihood
To implement the central steady growth and anti risk related arrangements, the NDRC Energy Bureau, issued a "guidance" on accelerating the construction of the transformation of the distribution network and distribution network construction and transformation "action plan (2015 ~ 2020)", the 2015 ~ 2020 distribution network construction and transformation of the investment of not less than 2 trillion yuan, and speeding up the construction of modern distribution network, support the development of economy and people's livelihood and social services.
(1) to achieve the grand goal of building a well-off society in an all-round way and to improve the quality of distribution network
With the further development of new urbanization and agricultural modernization in our country, the demand for reliable power supply and high-quality service in distribution network is increasing. The demand for ensuring the people's livelihood and the universal service of electricity is stiff. Is a building in Beijing, Shanghai and other 17 city core area high reliability demonstration area, average user outage time is not more than 5 minutes, to a high starting point, high standard construction of distribution network, to ensure adequate power supply capacity, the grid structure is reasonable, standardized equipment configuration, have self-healing automatic fault detection, isolation and network reconfiguration recovery ability. Two, in the pilot area of new urbanization of our country, we should moderately advance the construction of distribution network, closely follow the economic growth hotspots of urban areas, county towns, central towns and industrial parks, and promote the construction of new energy demonstration cities. The three is to increase efforts to upgrade rural power grids, increase rural substation and distribution transformer layout, improve the rural power supply capacity, accelerate the solution of "card neck", "low voltage" and other outstanding issues, before 2020 to gradually solve all 35 county power network contact problem of weak electricity to meet the needs of residents in rural areas, agricultural production, promote the beautiful countryside construction.
(2) adapt to the rapid development of new energy and diversification load and accelerate the transformation and upgrading of distribution network
New energy, distributed power supply, electric vehicles, energy storage device for the rapid development of the electricity load, a new trend in growth, change and diversification of the terminal, the distribution network from "passive" to "active" trend from "one-way" to "multiple", accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the distribution network is very urgent task. First, we should carry out the development strategy of strong smart grid, promote the application of new technology, new products and new technology, and improve the intelligent level of distribution network. Two is a good electric vehicle charging facilities for supporting access to power grid construction, built electric vehicle fast charging network and car networking service platform, the interconnection between city and intercity charging facilities to achieve, and actively carry out alternative energy to complete the 80% port power construction, actively promote the electric heating, advocate a new model of energy consumption, promote industrial and the energy saving society. Three, we should actively promote the construction of smart distribution network projects and Microgrid demonstration projects, and explore the establishment of an integrated transmission and distribution system with high proportion of renewable energy and electricity. Four is the distribution network as the support platform, and gradually realize big data, networking, cloud computing and other technology to deepen the application of power grid operation and management, improve the distribution network of intelligent, interactive level, the realization of green electricity service interactive channels, distributed power access, friendly electric vehicle plug and smart meters multiple two-way interaction, energy efficient and convenient services, promote revolution in energy production and consumption.
(3) strengthen the connection between power grid planning and local planning to ensure the planning and landing
First, we must formulate the long-range target network scientifically, achieve the goal of planning, and promote the coordinated development of transmission and distribution network, urban and rural power grid, primary grid equipment and the two system. Two, we should actively cooperate with the government in carrying out the layout planning of electric power facilities, and timely integrate the planning results into the urban and rural development planning and land use planning, so as to realize the synchronous planning and synchronous construction of distribution network and other urban and rural infrastructure. The three is to co-ordinate user resources and public resources, strictly abide by the target grid planning and layout planning of electric power facilities. According to the typical power supply mode, we will standardize the access plan of power users and distributed generation, and achieve the coordinated and orderly development of distribution network. Four is the establishment of the power grid construction of normal communication and coordination mechanism, timely into the local power grid planning and overall planning, land use planning and controlling detailed planning, new urbanization planning planning, protection of transformer substation, line corridor, underground pipeline construction resources, promote the effective implementation of power grid planning.
5 Conclusion
Optimization of synchronous power grid structure, accelerate the construction of strong smart grid, can promote the large-scale development of new energy and efficient use of coal, to achieve total control and layout optimization, improve the ecological environment in the Middle East, to further enhance the power universal service, promote urban and rural electrification, and will also save power investment, reduce the cost of energy supply and other significant economic and social benefit. The State Grid will build a strong, widely interconnected, highly intelligent, open and interactive unified synchronous grid, and become an important part of the global energy Internet, and will play an extremely important leading role.
